A scientific debate has emerged about earthquake risk in Turkey's Marmara region. Prof. Osman Bektaş recently stated that the probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake is weakening. He explained that the Main Marmara Fault is not a single structure. Instead, it has a segmented structure that releases energy in different ways.
According to Bektaş, fault lines in western and central Marmara are not fully locked. They are gradually releasing accumulated stress through slow movements. This process reduces the energy available for a catastrophic earthquake. He argued that these findings significantly diminish the likelihood of a single destructive event.
However, other prominent scientists disagree with this assessment. Prof. Naci Görür stated that a major earthquake above magnitude 7 is still expected. German researchers have also warned that locked fault segments continue storing strain. Research indicates a 30 to 70 percent probability of a major earthquake.
Despite the ongoing debate, all experts emphasize the importance of preparation. Nearly half of the buildings examined in Istanbul were classified as high risk. If authorities invested more in urban renewal, communities would be better protected. Earthquake prediction remains impossible, but careful planning can save many lives.
