Farmers and traders across Turkey are waiting for a key announcement. The Turkish Grain Board, known as TMO, has not yet revealed floor prices for the 2026 crop. Market experts anticipate a minimum price of around 250 Turkish lira per kilogram. If confirmed, this would represent a 25% increase over last season's rate.
Turkey supplies roughly 70% of the world's hazelnuts. This dominant position means any pricing decision has significant global consequences. The 2025/26 season was severely disrupted by frost and drought. As a result, export volumes dropped by 31%, though revenue still rose due to higher prices.
Production forecasts for the 2026/27 season suggest a strong recovery is possible. The International Nut Council estimated output at around 810,000 tons for the new season. That figure would mark a 56% increase compared with the previous year's crop. However, recent field estimates have revised that number down to about 700,000 tons.
Global chocolate manufacturers are watching these developments with great interest. Italy's Ferrero, which purchases about 25% of Turkey's annual hazelnut output, returned to the market in May. Political factors could also influence pricing, as a possible early election may encourage higher support for farmers. The outcome will shape supply chains and procurement strategies across the industry.
