UK energy suppliers have withdrawn more than half of their fixed-tariff deals from the market this week. The unprecedented move was triggered by a dramatic surge in wholesale gas prices. European benchmark gas prices had doubled within days, jumping from around €32 to over €60 per megawatt hour. This volatility stems from the escalating military conflict involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
The crisis intensified after Iran's retaliatory strikes damaged critical energy infrastructure across the Gulf region. QatarEnergy, which supplies approximately 12 to 14 percent of Europe's liquefied natural gas imports, halted production. Iran has also threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 percent of global oil passes. UK wholesale gas prices subsequently spiked by 93 percent in a single week, reaching 148 pence per therm.
Analysts at Cornwall Insight have forecast that the energy price cap could rise by 10 percent from July. The cap for April to June had already been set at £1,641, representing a 7 percent reduction. However, sustained wholesale price increases would feed into Ofgem's next regulatory decision in May. The Resolution Foundation warned that prolonged disruption could add approximately £500 to annual household energy bills.
Had European nations diversified their energy sources more aggressively, they might have been less vulnerable to this shock. EU gas storage currently stands at only around 30 percent capacity, well below previous years' levels. Goldman Sachs has modelled scenarios ranging from a quick resolution to prolonged disruption at €74 per megawatt hour. This crisis serves as a stark reminder that Europe remains dangerously exposed to volatile international energy markets.
