Gold prices in Turkey took an unexpected turn on March 31, surprising many investors. After weeks of decline, the precious metal reversed course and began climbing again. Gram gold, which had fallen to around 5,800 Turkish lira last week, rebounded to approximately 6,530 lira. This sudden shift has prompted analysts to debate whether prices have bottomed out. The reversal caught many market participants off guard, as sentiment had been overwhelmingly bearish.
Several factors have contributed to this volatile period in the gold market. Rising energy prices, driven by Middle East tensions, had created significant inflationary pressure worldwide. The gold market had declined over 13% from its late February peaks throughout March. Meanwhile, a stronger US dollar and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts had weighed heavily. Ounce gold, which had previously traded near 5,300 dollars, had dropped to around 4,560 dollars.
Despite the recent turbulence, major financial institutions remain optimistic about gold's long-term trajectory. Goldman Sachs has forecast that gold could reach 5,400 dollars per ounce by year-end. The investment bank cited strong central bank purchases and growing private-sector diversification as key drivers. Central banks are expected to purchase approximately 60 tons of gold monthly throughout 2026. Goldman Sachs analysts described the current pullback as an opportunity rather than a structural decline.
For Turkish investors, the situation is particularly complex due to currency fluctuations. The Turkish lira's movements against the dollar amplify the volatility of domestic gold prices. Had investors anticipated the geopolitical escalation earlier, they could have positioned their portfolios more effectively. Financial experts now advise cautious optimism, recommending that investors monitor both global developments and local conditions. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining whether this rebound is sustainable.